The cards on the Analytics page carry a short description, but a few numbers count something other than what you would assume. Here is the arithmetic behind those. Everything is in your shop currency: a subscription billed in another currency is converted at the rate Shopify applied to its own orders.
Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) counts every active subscription's discounted line total, converted to a monthly figure: line total times an interval factor, divided by the interval count. The factors are 30 for daily, 4.33 for weekly, 1 for monthly and 1/12 for yearly. So $20 of products every 2 weeks contributes 20 x 4.33 / 2 = $43.30. Shipping is not part of MRR.
Expected collections (next 30 days) adds line total plus delivery for every renewal date that falls inside the next 30 days, on active subscriptions only. It counts every cycle in that window, so a weekly subscription is counted four or five times, not once.
Total revenue from subscriptions is the all-time sum of order totals on subscription contracts and paid Mollie renewals, minus refunds. A fully refunded order counts as zero, never below it, and an order shared by several contracts counts once.
Average order value (AOV) on Overview is all-time subscription revenue divided by the all-time count of subscription orders. The Average order value (period) on Orders is the same division inside the selected period, so the two numbers rarely match.
Average revenue per user (ARPU) is all-time subscription revenue divided by the number of different customers who hold an active subscription right now. Revenue from customers who left stays on top while they drop out of the bottom, so ARPU rises after cancellations.
Average active subscription age is the mean number of days since creation across active subscriptions. Average order cycles is all-time subscription orders divided by the current active count.
Churn rate is cancellations in the period divided by (active now + cancellations in the period), times 100. The bottom of that fraction uses today's active count, not the count at the start of the period.
Net subscription change is new subscriptions minus cancellations in the period, counted by the date a subscription was created and by the date its status changed to canceled.
Reactivated subscriptions counts active subscriptions created before the period and changed during it. Read it as a trend rather than an exact number.
Billing success rate is the share of active subscriptions whose last payment succeeded, counted only among those with a known status. Subscriptions whose last payment status cannot be determined are shown as Unknown in the Payment status chart and left out of the percentage.
Dunning resolution rate is all resolved dunning entries divided by all dunning entries, all-time. It ignores the date range, unlike Dunning resolved (period).
Offer acceptance rate is accepted offers divided by cancellation flow events.
Go back to "Read your subscription analytics" for the tabs, the date ranges and the view modes.
Expect MRR and expected collections to differ: one is normalised per month, the other counts real renewal dates and shipping.
Read churn together with the Retention tab, which shows the reasons behind it.
Stuck on any of this? Open the chat in the bottom right corner of the app and we will help you set it up.
